Will Bush Drag Us into War with Iran?

I've voiced my concerns about Bush's policy toward Iran on a number of occassions. I don't know if war with Iran will take place. And if there is a war, I don't know whether that war will be before the November elections or after the elections. Without going into detail, I've seen some indications that an attack a year from now would make more sense than in a few weeks from now (not that an attack on Iran would provide us with any kind of foreign policy, military or economic advantage). Given that we still don't know why Bush went to war in Iraq, we're faced with a foreign policy apparatus that no longer makes much sense. Therefore, under the new rules, anything is possible. Steve Soto of The Left Coaster has a must-read post today on Iran:

I have been conversing lately with retired Air Force Colonel Sam Gardiner, whom I have been in contact with since his groundbreaking study on how the White House sold the Iraq war to the nation. You will recall that Gardiner moderated an Atlantic Monthly war game exercise targeting Iran for their December 2004 edition, so he knows what indicators to look for in gauging not if, but when the Bush Administration is ready to strike against Iran. In a previous piece, I passed along the four step sequence that Gardiner predicts will be followed in any Bush Administration attack against Iran.

I followed up on that recent post with another email exchange with Gardiner to get his updated assessment of the likelihood of an attack, and when, as well as the Administration’s grasp, or lack of, the consequences of such an attack. I also exchanged emails with Professor Juan Cole to get a sense of what he thought the reaction would be inside Iraq to an attack by the United States against Iran.

Be sure to read the rest. Keep in mind that a string of generals have been trying to do their best to respect American military tradition while at the same time warning Americans that we have a problem. The focus of the generals has been Donald Rumsfeld but Rumsfeld's policies are fully endorsed by Bush and Cheney. And it's Bush who will ultimately decide whether we go to war with Iran or not. If Congress were to open investigations into our Iran policy and our status in Iraq, I'm sure the generals would have a great deal more to say.

If Bush goes to war with Iran, it's possible there may be only a token public relations campaign. An incident with Iran may quickly be exaggerated into a major bombing attack on Iran's military installations and then specifically, its nuclear sites. Bush has demonstrated many times in his life that there comes a point where he simply just stops listening and stops caring. Attacking Iran would constitute the biggest gamble in the life of George W. Bush. And this is a man who cannot distinguish between his lousy luck in business and the generosity of his father's friends. In Bush's life, winning has consistently been an illusion.

But Bush is not the only problem. We can no longer afford the paralysis of Congress. This is the time when Congress needs to lay down the law. Without Congressional authorization, Bush does not have the authority to launch the United States into his third major war because of his right wing fantasies or his poor numbers in the polls. Time may be running out. If Americans feel that it is time for Bush to catch Osama bin Laden, finish the war in Afghanistan and clean up the mess in Iraq and that we have no need for an even more costly war in Iran, now is the time to write those letters.