Zogby 95% Sure of Recent Iraq Casualty Study

Raw Story reports a CNN interview where pollster John Zogby defends the John Hopkins study that says approximately 655,000 more Iraqis have died since our invasion of Iraq than otherwise would have been expected:

Expert pollster John Zogby is "95 percent certain" that around 650,000 Iraqis civilians have died since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. A new study by Iraqi physicians and Americans from Johns Hopkins University polled 1,800 Iraqis to calculate an approximate number of casualties since the beginning of the war.

In an interview on CNN International, Zogby explains that the methodology used in the study is very reliable. "The methodology, from what I've seen of the survey, is quite good," he remarked. He is also in agreement with the study's estimate of 650,000 casualties, saying, "I can't vouch for it 100 percent, but I'll vouch for it 95 percent, which is as good as it gets in survey research."

I don't know enough about these things to know how accurate the John Hopkins report is. But I have a healthy respect for statistical methods. There is far too much a gap between Bush's figure of 30,000 civilian deaths and the figures in the John Hopkins of 655,000 civilian deaths.

Let's review an article by David Brown of The Washington Post which made a number of points about the study:

A team of American and Iraqi epidemiologists estimates that 655,000 more people have died in Iraq since coalition forces arrived in March 2003 than would have died if the invasion had not occurred.

The estimate, produced by interviewing residents during a random sampling of households throughout the country, is far higher than ones produced by other groups, including Iraq's government.

It is more than 20 times the estimate of 30,000 civilian deaths that President Bush gave in a speech in December. It is more than 10 times the estimate of roughly 50,000 civilian deaths made by the British-based Iraq Body Count research group.

(snip)

Of the total 655,000 estimated "excess deaths," 601,000 resulted from violence and the rest from disease and other causes, according to the study. This is about 500 unexpected violent deaths per day throughout the country.

(snip)

The interviewers asked for death certificates 87 percent of the time; when they did, more than 90 percent of households produced certificates.

(snip)

An independent group of researchers and biostatisticians based in England produces the Iraq Body Count. It estimates that there have been 44,000 to 49,000 civilian deaths since the invasion. An Iraqi nongovernmental organization estimated 128,000 deaths between the invasion and July 2005.

655,000 deaths that would not have occured without the invasion of Iraq. 601,000 deaths from violence alone. The thing to be noted is that the number of deaths that President Bush gave is the lowest of any of the numbers discussed. Bush's credibility these days is not worth much. The military in recent years has also made of point of not doing body counts though there has been some modification of that policy in the last year or two (I'm not aware, though, of any comprehensive study by the military).

Estimates of deaths is never that easy when it comes to war. The estimates of total military and civilian deaths from World War Two tended to be low and have been raised in recent years from 50 million to 70 million. Other estimates for recent wars have sometimes been too high.

I have to admit the figure of 655,000 shocks the hell out of me. But then, when the news of Abu Ghraib was first announced, my first reaction was that it was an isolated event; we subsequently learned otherwise. Sometimes reality is even worse than we think it is.

The John Hopkins study is being recognized as the most scientific of all the studies done on Iraq casualties. I'm impressed that the study asked for death certificates and received them 87% of the time. That still doesn't totally convince me that the numbers are correct but it should be noted that the survey part of the study was finished three months ago and the last three months have been very violent and very deadly for Iraqis. Whatever the actual number for Iraqi deaths happens to be since we invaded in 2003, the number is still growing and Bush still does not have a plan, nor can anyone in the White House effectively explain why we are there. But it should be noted that 70% of the Iraqis want us to leave.