Monday, November 20, 2006

Time to Call the Neoconservative Bluff

I'm tired of it. I'm tired of listening to Bill Kristol, Richard Perle, David Frum, Ken Adelman and the host of other neoconservatives talk like they still know what they're talking about. They're not even all on the same page anymore and some of the neoconservatives seem to be working hard to save their careers after advocating one of the most bone-headed strategic failures in the history of American foreign policy. Some of the neoconservatives still advocate increasing troop levels in Iraq though there are no troops to be had. Some are still talking about a military strike (possibly a nuclear strike) against Iran and/or a regime change. I find it pointless to keep up with the latest rationalizations of the neocons. But let's try something different. Let's call their bluff.

The more you learn about the neocons, the more you learn how half-assed they are. If they really wanted to go forward with their madness, if they really believe in their 'program', here's what would have happen to 'stabilize' Iraq and change the regime in Iran. We'll put in the form of a neoconservative memo just to show how ridiculous it would get:

1. First, accept the reality in November 2006 that Iraq is broken and that the United States must become fully self-sufficient and isolationist in order to pursue this program that has largely been reduced to 'stabilizing' Iraq and making Iran nuclear-free even if that means a regime change. As long as the 'program' continues, the credibility of the United States with the rest of the world is shot for the next few years. Forget it. There is nothing left but uber-unilateralism.

2. Demand that George W. Bush resign. He's just an opportunist and has no real belief in the 'program.' Install Dick Cheney as president. At least he's a believer.

3. Institute a draft. There's no way to deal with Iran and to stabilize Iraq without a large number of additional troops. Increase the military budget by 50%.

4. Hang on in Iraq until the draftees are trained. In the meantime, hire some mercernaries from around the world to fill in here and there.

5. In the meantime, go on a major campaign to cut the use of oil in the United States. Heavily tax SUVs, boats, etc. Heavily tax home heating. Develop a patriotic do-your-part campaign. At the same time, spend billions on building up the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Engage in a massive campaign to build pipelines on the Arabian peninsula that bypass the Hormuz Straits. You might as well come up with ideas to crash the Chinese economy so their demand for oil isn't a problem. Pay off American oil companies with promises, tax breaks, whatever. You want to completely destroy the price of oil. This will get the attention of the Iranians and a whole lot of other people in the world.

6. During all this time, you need to build the National Guard back up. You'll need them for a year from now when you attack Iran and gasoline prices and the cost of heating homes goes sky high, way above anything we've seen so far. There'll be riots of course.

7. A year from now, warlords will control most of Iraq. Buy a warlord, or maybe three warlords for each of the main Iraqi groups. Take your pick. Join forces with the warlord(s) and reconquer Iraq. Stop pretending you can keep warlords bought and be grateful you've stabilized Iraq after killing a few hundred thousand more Iraqis. Pray at your local place of worship and redeem your soul.

8. You don't nuke Iran. Are you crazy? Even by neoconservative standards, this is lame macho blathering. Instead, you spend billions on building up a stockpile of really heavy conventional weaponry. You tax the rich because there won't be any more money to borrow. (By now, other countries will be catching on and you need some way to pay for those weapons.)

9. At this point, stop talking about democracy. You haven't really been practicing it very well at home. You haven't been practicing it overseas. Nobody will believe you anyway. So forget it. It ain't gonna to happen. You'll have recreated the Cold War but on new terms, except instead of three or four enemies (like the old Soviet Union), you'll have about fifty enemies, at least, who can make your life difficult. Deal with it.

10. If the problem gets difficult, hand it over to the next administration. Let them deal with the mess. Buff up the resume, get a job at a think tank and figure out what to do next. Make sure you point the finger at everybody but yourself. Oh, and don't forget to whine and dine and cajole the right wing fats cats to keep the money rolling in. Life's a bitch.


Okay, this is me speaking again. Let's hope no one, and I mean no one, takes the above 'memo' seriously. It's time for Washington to close the curtain on the neoconservative follies.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Hang on in Iraq until the draftees are trained."

Tilt.

Absent a miracle, we can train draftees and volunteers until three-fourths of the male population has been trained, and it won't make much difference.

Soldiers don't fight much or well in the circumstances Iraqis are in now. Most sign up because it's a last-resort job and they're desperate for a paycheck. Ironically, some may actually see a measure of increased safety in enlisting.

They're not fighting for Allah and country. They know little about and aren't that enthused about a democratic future. They certainly don't identify with or feel a need to risk their lives to defend the Green Zone-ensconced government.

A big problem is that Iraqi soldiers are often AWOL and even when present refuse assignment to places distant from their homes. A big reason for that is that they have no way to get their pay to their dependents from a distant location. They have to hand-carry it because there is no banking system in operation and no way to transfer funds.

Furthermore, the ranks are rife with divided and conflicting loyalties. Plus, there are "plants" from various factions with their own agendas.

Last but not least, as we heard in testimony before a Democrats-only hearing weeks before the election, Iraqi troops are given a blue shirt, a rifle and maybe a dozen rounds, and sent out to make the place safe for democracy. For wheeled transportation, they use compact pickup trucks and vans.

Think about that. No steel helmet, no body armor, typically no automatic weapon, skimpy ammunition, precious little communications gear. And yet, they see our troops decked out with an abundance of equipment, plus medics and rapid evacuation backup.

Bottom line: We can train them until we're blue in the face. Eventually, factional and militia fighters will do the fighting that matters. Perhaps with a whole bunch of Iranian regulars sent in, likely not in uniform, to make sure things turn out as Iran wants.

11:32 PM  

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