Bush and the Iran Game
Some have been arguing that Bush has been trying to play a game of bluff with Iran over the issue of its nuclear programs. A good bluff in foreign policy requires at least two major components: credibility and competence. In both credibility and competence, the Bush Administration is in short supply. Sy Hersh's article awhile back talked about the possibility of a bombing attack against Iran's nuclear facilities and of course many have pointed out the likelihood of this bringing on a broader war. In order for Bush to go to war against Iran, he needs authorization from Congress. It is unlikely that Congress will vote on such a measure. But there is still considerable danger that Bush will drag us into a war either deliberately or through miscalculation.
The oldest way to drag a nation into war is to create an incident that requires self-defense. It should be noted there are people in the Middle East who would like to see a war. And there are people on the far right in our country who would also like to see a war (see this article in Media Matters). The unwillingness of the Bush Administration to sit down and have talks for the last four years with Iran demonstrates a lack of seriousness when it comes to using diplomacy as a tool. During those four years, Iran has moved further to the right. The intentions of the Bush Administration are not clear. Perhaps Bush isn't clear in his own mind what he is going to do and when.
But we need to watch out for incidents like this:
We don't seem to have any reporters in the area. We have no confirmation of what happened. I would wonder what the policy is of our military along that area of the border and whether we have personnel in the area and what their duties are. I would also wonder if we have special forces in the area and whether we have private paramilitary contractors in that area.
Here's another article, this one from Reuters, on the alleged incident:
For the last three years, there have been incidents from time to time with Iraq's neighbors (some of these incidents have been initiated by us) and it's been proper that they have been treated as isolated incidents. But that could change. We can never forget that in the months leading up to the war in Iraq, Bush tried repeatedly to provoke Saddam Hussein into a response that would supposedly make unnecessary the need to deal with Congress and the UN. Bush and his advisers were sure that Saddam Hussein would balk at the demand for UN inspectors to return. When Saddam Hussein said yes to the inspectors, this should have prompted a reconsideration of the war policy if that war policy had any authenticity. But as we now know, Bush kept on pushing for war, even when it became obvious that the UN was not finding any weapons of mass destruction and even as Bush's case for war was falling apart.
Iran is some five to ten years from having nuclear weapons. And yet we have Condi Rice playing her games again on the talk shows. A competent president would hire a Secretary of State who actually engages in diplomacy instead of talk show bull sessions that bend facts out of any recognizable form. Yes, we need to deal with Iran. But it would be helpful if the right wing media would butt out and let diplomacy, real diplomacy if it ever shows up, take its course first. If Bush can waste four years avoiding diplomacy with Iran, Americans should not tolerate a rush to war. Nor should they tolerate games that Bush cannot control.
The oldest way to drag a nation into war is to create an incident that requires self-defense. It should be noted there are people in the Middle East who would like to see a war. And there are people on the far right in our country who would also like to see a war (see this article in Media Matters). The unwillingness of the Bush Administration to sit down and have talks for the last four years with Iran demonstrates a lack of seriousness when it comes to using diplomacy as a tool. During those four years, Iran has moved further to the right. The intentions of the Bush Administration are not clear. Perhaps Bush isn't clear in his own mind what he is going to do and when.
But we need to watch out for incidents like this:
Iranian forces again shelled a border area used by Iranian Kurdish rebels, forcing some families to flee their homes Monday but causing no casualties, a Kurdish official said.
Mustafa Qader, a member of the political bureau of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party, said the shelling began at about 9 a.m. Sunday and continued until 5:30 a.m. Monday.
"It was so heavy that it forced families in these villages to flee the area to find shelter with their relatives," Qader said in a telephone interview from Sulaimaniyah, which is 160 miles northeast of Baghdad.
In Baghdad, Iraq's central government could not immediately confirm Monday's attack.
We don't seem to have any reporters in the area. We have no confirmation of what happened. I would wonder what the policy is of our military along that area of the border and whether we have personnel in the area and what their duties are. I would also wonder if we have special forces in the area and whether we have private paramilitary contractors in that area.
Here's another article, this one from Reuters, on the alleged incident:
Iran on Monday denied Baghdad's accusation that Iranian soldiers had shelled Kurdish positions on the Iraqi border and ventured five kilometers (three miles) into Iraq to attack Kurdish rebels.
Iran's Kurdish territories along its border with Iraq have simmered with unrest since July. Several members of Iran's security forces and Kurds have died in a string of street protests and gunfights.
For the last three years, there have been incidents from time to time with Iraq's neighbors (some of these incidents have been initiated by us) and it's been proper that they have been treated as isolated incidents. But that could change. We can never forget that in the months leading up to the war in Iraq, Bush tried repeatedly to provoke Saddam Hussein into a response that would supposedly make unnecessary the need to deal with Congress and the UN. Bush and his advisers were sure that Saddam Hussein would balk at the demand for UN inspectors to return. When Saddam Hussein said yes to the inspectors, this should have prompted a reconsideration of the war policy if that war policy had any authenticity. But as we now know, Bush kept on pushing for war, even when it became obvious that the UN was not finding any weapons of mass destruction and even as Bush's case for war was falling apart.
Iran is some five to ten years from having nuclear weapons. And yet we have Condi Rice playing her games again on the talk shows. A competent president would hire a Secretary of State who actually engages in diplomacy instead of talk show bull sessions that bend facts out of any recognizable form. Yes, we need to deal with Iran. But it would be helpful if the right wing media would butt out and let diplomacy, real diplomacy if it ever shows up, take its course first. If Bush can waste four years avoiding diplomacy with Iran, Americans should not tolerate a rush to war. Nor should they tolerate games that Bush cannot control.
posted by Craig at 8:32 PM
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