Bush, Iran and Zarqawi

One of the most dangerous developments of the last five years is the tendency of the Bush Administration to ignore analysis and expertise, particularly if it doesn't square with the preconceptions of the Bush inner circle. The other dangerous development is that nearly every story whether real or not is seen by the Bush Administration as a tool for political gain. I suspect Bush and his inner circle still cling to the belief that they can somehow create reality. The recent Bush photo ops in the Green Zone of Baghdad were an effort to create the illusion of success when in fact, despite the killing of Zarqawi, there is still little success to be seen.

There is talk that Zarqawi wanted a war between the US and Iran. Actually, given the leadership in Washington, more wars anywhere by the US would simply be fertile ground for more terrorist activity (and militias and warlords). Juan Cole of Informed Comment has a post on the Zarqawi/Iran angle:

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was hoping to provoke a US-Iran war as a way of bogging the Americans down further and defeating them in Iraq.

Remember all those times Bush, Rice and Rumsfeld came out and said they suspected that Shiite Iran was somehow aiding the Sunni Arab insurgency? You remember how baffled I was at this bizarre allegation? You wonder whether they were being fed disinformation by a Zarqawi agent, and falling for it.

After they fell for the biggest whoppers of the 21st century, as retailed by Ahmad Chalabi, have Bush administration officials been gullibly swallowing an al-Qaeda black psy-ops operation intended to mire US troops in the Dasht-i Kavir? For people who think of themselves as tough as nails hardheaded realists, the Bushies seem awfully easy to fool.

American hawks tied to the Israeli Likud Party, such as Michael Ledeen and Michael Rubin, who are also trying to get up an American war on Iran, turn out to have the same goal as Zarqawi!

I'm not sure what to make of all this. The incompetence of the Bush Administration is clear for all to see, but administration incompetence may not account for all situations. Bush had three chances in 2002 to take out Zarqawi before the war was even started but Bush passed. The war in Iraq was never just about Iraq. Syria and Iran were always in the mix and Iran was mentioned in the 2002 State of the Union speech as a member of the axis of evil; this was when Zarqawi was a relatively dormant though dangerous terrorist holed up in his base in the mountains of northeastern Iraq and otherwise little heard from during the period. It's possible the administration in the last six to eight months was simply using Zarqawi and his propaganda to further justify a possible war with Iran. And now it may be using Zarqawi once again as the excuse to lower tensions with Iran, at least until after the midterm elections. The possibility of real negotiations with Iran is encouraging, but it would be a mistake to assume that military options are off the table.