Laura Rozen Writes on Iran

I missed Laura Rozen's article from two days ago in American Prospect. Here's the first two paragraphs and the last two:

After six years of the Bush administration often resisting calls for pragmatism and compromise from allies and home-grown foreign policy realists alike, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s dramatic announcement Wednesday that the United States would agree to join European-led talks with Iran if Tehran would suspend its uranium enrichment had the power of shock and awe -- if perhaps as short a half-life.

The day after Rice’s stunning announcement, sophisticated Iran watchers wonder if Washington and Tehran will ever get to the same negotiating table, or if hardliners have so realigned the decision-making environments in the two countries that they are set on a course towards eventual confrontation that has only just experienced an interesting speed bump.

(snip)

...what Iranian anti-regime activists may not fully realize, the administration official said, is how quickly the United States was exhausting diplomatic options and drifting toward possible military confrontation -- and a potentially far graver security situation for most Iranians.

“The biggest human-rights issue of all is to avoid confrontation,” he said.

The administration figure talked about a potentially far graver security situation for most Iranians. That leaves unsaid how a third war by the Bush Administration would affect the economy, military and security of the United States. Yes, negotiations require putting a strong position forward but the success of negotiations depends on credibility on all sides and the credibility on the American side is in disarray these days. Iran is an important issue but the larger issue for most Americans is George W. Bush and that is an issue not easily ignored. With the midterm elections approaching, everything Bush says is even more political than usual and that makes the negotiations themselves suspect. Bush has so far done little to rebuild his credibility. So there's little to do for the moment except to remain cautiously skeptical.