Bush Ally Tony Blair in Trouble

The Bush Administration touted its coalition of the willing when the war with Iraq began. With the exception of the British, the coalition was never a muscular one; certainly the coalition was nothing like the one the senior Bush and former Secretary of State James Baker assembled for the first Gulf War. A number of nations have since left Iraq and others have reduced their numbers substantially. Steadily, Bush has been losing allies. Italy recently voted Bush ally Berlusconi out of office. Tony Blair is still hanging on to his job but members of the Labour Party are getting restless as The Washington Post reports:

Prime Minister Tony Blair, battered over his Iraq policy and a series of scandals in his cabinet, is facing a growing revolt within his Labor Party as scores of Labor members of Parliament demand that he set a date to step aside.

"I have a job for him: ambassador to Outer Mongolia," said Robert Wareing, a Labor member of Parliament for 23 years. He said "a very strong feeling" in the party that Blair should go has increased since Labor's dismal third-place showing in local elections Thursday. The future of the Blair government, the Bush administration's closest European ally, suddenly appears more shaky and uncertain. Blair, who was already suffering low approval ratings and rebellion among some factions of his party after nine years in office, is facing sharp, new attacks since the election and a controversial cabinet reshuffle Friday.

A BBC survey Sunday found that 52 of 172 Labor members of Parliament questioned said Blair should resign within a year. Labor MPs interviewed said a large number of their colleagues, many of whom have been Blair supporters in the past, are endorsing a letter demanding that Blair announce a timetable for stepping down.

On Friday, Tony Blair fired his Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw. An Associated Press article in the Chicago Tribune recaps the story:

Stung by an election defeat, Tony Blair shuffled his Cabinet on Friday and replaced Foreign Secretary Jack Straw in an attempt to save his own political future and shore up support to tackle crises in Iran and Iraq.

Straw had privately expressed doubts about the Iraq war to his boss and publicly took a different stance on Iran. He described military action against Tehran as "inconceivable," something neither Blair nor President Bush would say, and called reports that the Bush administration has contingency plans for a tactical nuclear strike "nuts."

Blair, who has strangely been in too much awe of George W. Bush, is clearly facing increasing political trouble at home. There are a number of factors involved with Blair's falling numbers but Iraq and Iran are of growing concern to voters. British opinion varies on what is happening. Here's only one perspective from The Guardian:

The key to the demotion of Jack Straw from foreign secretary is Iran. Mr Straw for more than a year, in his favourite outlet the BBC Today programme or at various press conferences, said repeatedly a military strike on Iran was inconceivable.

Politicians always try to avoid boxing themselves in, but Straw did on this issue: if a military strike had become a serious option, he would have been forced to resign.

He was reflecting the reality of British domestic politics. Against the background of the Iraq debacle, Mr Straw knew it would be difficult to win support for the military option in cabinet and that it would create even more upheaval among the membership of the already weakened Labour party.

The problem for Mr Straw is that Tony Blair does not view Iran the same way. He regards the threat posed by Iran as the most serious in the world today, and is even more messianic on the issue than George Bush. That does not mean that a military strike will happen but Mr Blair, like Mr Bush, thinks it is a good idea to keep the option on the table, if only to keep Iran guessing.

Like Bush, Blair has a great deal of explaining to do when it comes to Iraq; it should be added that Blair has gone through two Foreign Secretaries who have not agreed with his policies and possibly his judgment. If Bush attacks Iran, our nation may find itself without allies with three wars on its hands.