Anthony Cordesman and Iraq

Anthony Cordesman is a top defense and intelligence expert who has written and spoken often about the Middle East. His experience includes working for the Department of Defense, for Senator John McCain and also ABC News.

Here's some excerpts from an article by Cordesman that appeared in the Los Angeles Times:

IF THE UNITED STATES is to win in Iraq, it needs an honest and objective picture of what is happening there. The media and outside experts can provide pieces of this picture, but only the U.S. government has the resources and access to information to offer a comprehensive overview.

But the quarterly report to Congress issued May 30 by the Department of Defense, "Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq," like the weekly reports the State Department issues on Iraq, is profoundly flawed. It does more than simply spin the situation to provide false assurances to lawmakers and the public. It makes basic analytical and statistical mistakes, fails to define key terms, provides undefined and unverifiable survey information and deals with key issues by omission. It deserves an overall grade of F.

The report provides a fundamentally false picture of the political situation in Iraq and of the difficulties ahead. It does not prepare Congress or the American people for the years of effort that will be needed even under "best-case" conditions nor for the risk of far more serious forms of civil conflict. Some of its political reporting is simply incompetent.

(snip)

It is scarcely reassuring to be told by the Defense Department that the February attack on the Golden Mosque in Samarra marked a defeat for the insurgents and Islamic extremists because it did not instantly lead to all-out civil war. It is hard to think of a worse definition of victory.

THE ECONOMIC section of the report contains useful data and reflects some real progress in the Iraqi financial sector. However, its analysis is flawed to the point of being actively misleading. No meaningful assessment is provided of the successes and failures of the U.S. aid effort, and no mention is made of the massive corruption and mismanagement of U.S. aid discovered by the special inspector general for Iraqi reconstruction.

(snip)

The U.S. cannot afford to repeat the mistakes it made in Vietnam. Among them was dangerous self-delusion. The strategy President Bush is pursuing in Iraq is high risk. If it is to have any chance of success, it will require bipartisan persistence and sustained American effort. This requires trust, and trust cannot be built without integrity. That means credible reporting.

The American people and Congress need an honest portrayal of what is happening, not half-truths by omission and spin.

It is somewhat in Cordesman's job description to define what it will take to win in Iraq, not to assess the political dimension or the overall competence of President Bush, Cheney or Rumsfeld. His report does not mention that it is the job of Congress to make sure it is getting an accurate assessment of Iraq; unfortunately, Bush's Republican allies have done everything they can to obscure the real picture.

Nevertheless, Cordesman's reports over the last three years have often been sobering. Certainly Cordesman is right about his main point: not much good can take place until the delusions and spin come to a halt and we begin to look at the hard facts. The facts in Iraq are not good. But the biggest problem facing the United States is not Iraq. The biggest problem facing Americans in 2006 is the failing presidency of George W. Bush. Even the disgraceful secrecy, lies, grabs for power, and perpetual public relations games cannot hide the rank incompetence and blunders. Until constitutional accountability returns to Washington and serious corrections are made, Iraq and a host of issues will continue to flounder, and our nation will remain in crisis.